Semi-finals review

Germany 3 Turkey 2 (predicted: 1-0)

What a strange game that was.  Germany played like absolute no-hopers for 45 minutes and while they improved after the break, they still didn’t look like a team that was ninty minutes away from being European Champions.  Meanwhile an understrength Turkey side dominated the first half, went ahead deservedly through Ugur and were pegged back when Schweinsteiger clipped home Podolski’s low cross.

As television pictures went down across Europe in the second half, Germany went ahead after Turkey reserve keeper Rustu misjudged a cross leaving a simple finish for Klose.  It looked all over but once again Turkey found some fight and when Philipp Lahm got outwitted by Sabri on the right-wing and he slid a perfect low cross in to Semih’s path.  Lovable Jens Lehmann looked a bit silly on his knees with his hands out waiting for a ball that never reached him.

A final minute winner from Lahm, who played a superb one-two with the otherwise useless Thomas Hitzlsperger and finished clinically from about 8 yards, handed the Germans a scarcely-deserved victory.

Lahm was involved in a lot of Germany’s good play.  He could also have had a penalty when Sabri clattered him on the edge of the Turkish box.  Massimo Busacca, the Swiss referee, incredibly waved play-on.  He also angered the Turks when he saw no foul in Kazim Kazim being pulled down by Lahm on the edge of the German box.

It was tough on the Turks who created several chances, especially in the first half when they could have been a couple of goals ahead.  Kazim Kazim somehow blasted against the bar from ten yards although it was his fluffed shot that deceived Lehmann when it came back off the bar and fell to Ugur for the first goal.

Fatih Terim is set to resign as Turkish national boss but he has left a very strong side behind that could become a force in European football.

Russia 0 Spain 3 (predicted: 3-2)

I didn’t see it.  Russia were very disappointing apparently.

Final preview

So… it’s the big one.

Did I think we’d see a Spain v Germany final at the start?  I figured that any of six teams could win it: Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal or France.  It might sound like a cop-out but that’s how open the tournament seemed with no outstanding team right now in Europe.

At this point I still feel there is no outstanding team in European football (one might say in world football).  On the evidence we’ve seen though Spain have proven themselves to be a cut-above every other team in the competition, even if it was a limping performance that saw them overcome Italy.

The strength in Italy’s performance might be what gives Germany hope today: a rearguard action.  Spain’s best performances came against Russia – an attacking side with a suspect defence.  When they faced an organised team such as Italy or Sweden (who they only overcame in injury time), they were frustrated for most of the game.

Germany don’t have a strong defence but Low will instruct his team to sit tight and wait for the Spanish to come at them.  Torsten Frings will have to be on his game and the rumours over the availability or otherwise of Michael Ballack appear to be just a smokescreen with an hour to go to kick off.

At the other end of the pitch I don’t think Germany have the talent to take advantage of Spain’s own defensive weaknesses (Puyol and Ramos, namely).  If Podolski gets beyond Ramos then late-arriving players like Ballack and Shweinsteiger may get shooting opportunities.  But beyond that it’s hard to see where the inspiration will come from.

Spain are missing David Villa but he’s been less impressive as the tournament has gone on and the real key men for the Spanish are in midfield: Senna, Xavi and Fabregas (who is still omitted from the first XI).

It’ll be a tight game and will be better for an early Germany goal. If Germany win it then it is likely to be due to some outstanding defending and their midfield managing to stifle Spanish creativity.  I can see goals on both sides but the Spanish to win out.

Prediction: Germany 1 Spain 2

Semi Final 1: Germany v Turkey

Apparently Turkey are so short of players they will be bringing in Muzzy Izzet and the bloke who played Roland on Grange Hill.  Well, maybe not, but they are rumoured to be considering an outfield position for their third choice goalkeeper since they only have 13 fit players.

Volkan Demirel failed to halve his two game suspension, Emre has been ruled out with a hamstring problem, Nihat has a thigh injury and is out of the tournament and three more players – Tuncay, Arda Turan and Emre Asik – are out of contention after picking up a second yellow in the quarter-final.

Germany are feeling relaxed and perhaps comfortable in the role of favourites.  Their quarter-final win over Portugal restored some self-confidence after below-par performances against Croatia and Austria.  Bastian Schweinsteiger should keep his place after his winning performance against Portugal and Torsten Frings may return after injury.

It all points to a hopeless cause for a team without numerous first team players – but you never know.  Turkey will be hoping that unlike Dr David Banner, who couldn’t find the strength to rescue his girlfriend from under his overturned car, they may be able to triumph without the need for a dangerous overdose of gamma rays.

As with the quarter-finals there is little to choose between the teams but I’ll lean towards a full-strength Germany to nick it.

Prediction: Germany 1 Turkey 0

Semi Final 2: Russia v Spain

It’s a predictable way to open a column about the Russia/Spain game but you could have got huge odds on this being a semi-final match in the wake of Spain’s opening match thrashing of the Russians.  I wrote of the Russians the following day: “They are perhaps unfortunate to have met one of the best teams of the tournament in the first game and they may yet take four points from their last two games yet.”

Indeed, Russia have won three games in a row since then, scoring 6 goals in the process.  Spain have won two and drawn one since then, scoring just four goals.  Arguably their most unimpressive performance came against the stubborn Italians in the quarter-finals.

It will be a different game against the Russians though.  Even the talented Dutch side they beat in the previous round played defensively in fear of what the attacking Russians could do to them.  The Spanish will find it an open game and that will play to their strengths.  They also have the usually-potent forward line of Torres and Villa – both unimpressive against Italy – to expose an arguably weak Russian defence.

For Russia, Vasily Berezutsky will likely replace the suspended Denis Kolodin.  But at the other end of the pitch they will have Zyryanov, Zhirkov, Arshavin and the improving Pavlyuchenko to terrorise the sometimes-fragile Carlos Puyol and Sergio Ramos.

The big decision for Luis Aragones is whether or not he accomodates Cesc Fabregas in a starting position at the expense of Xavi or Marcos Senna.  Perhaps Andrés Iniesta is not safe either after a lacklustre performance against Italy.

My heart says Russia here even if my head says Spain.  I think a Russia v Germany final would be fresh and exciting.

So, let’s listen to the heart.

Prediction: Russia 3 Spain 2